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UK Long-Term Borrowing Costs Near 27-Year High, Tightening Reeves’s Budget Choices

Rising gilt yields are shrinking the chancellor’s limited fiscal buffer ahead of the autumn budget.

Overview

  • The 30-year gilt yield touched about 5.62%–5.64%, approaching its highest level since 1998, while the 10-year yield rose to roughly 4.74%.
  • Elevated rates are pushing annual debt interest above £100bn and eroding fiscal headroom, with one estimate putting the buffer near £5.3bn.
  • Economists say the autumn budget may need tens of billions in extra revenue, with some projecting up to £30bn–£50bn through tax rises, spending restraint or more borrowing to meet fiscal rules.
  • The Treasury is reported to be assessing major tax options, including a property tax overhaul, ending the capital gains tax exemption on main homes, and tweaks to inheritance tax.
  • The jump in yields reflects a broader global sell-off in long-dated debt and fresh US political pressure on the Federal Reserve, as Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann warns of persistent inflation.