Overview

• The ONS revised August payrolled employees to a 10,000 increase after initially estimating an 8,000 fall, while an early September estimate indicates roughly 10,000 job losses.
• Unemployment held at 4.7% with inactivity at 21%, and the ONS said declines in payrolls and vacancies appear to be levelling off, with record employment among over‑65s and a rise in youth-driven joblessness.
• Wage growth eased to 4.7% excluding bonuses in the three months to August, while total pay including bonuses reached 5.0%, keeping pay pressures elevated.
• Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann urged a restrictive stance near 4% for November, and economists expect Governor Andrew Bailey to be the deciding vote after a closely split August meeting.
• September inflation data are due next week and forecasters see price growth nearing 4%, increasing pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves as retailers and hospitality point to last year’s £20bn employers’ NICs rise.