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3h ago

UK Jobs Weaken as Wage Growth Cools and Inflation Surprise Clouds Rate-Cut Timing

Economists now expect the Bank of England to wait until spring to cut rates after CPI hit 3.4% and hiring slowed.

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Skyscrapers of the Canary Wharf commercial district are seen with The Shard building and construction cranes reflected in a perimeter glass wall of the viewing area of Garden at 120, in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, September 23, 2025. REUTERS/Toby Melville
Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey speaks during the Bank of England financial stability report press conference at the Bank of England, in London, Britain August 7, 2025. Jordan Pettitt/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
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Overview

  • The jobless rate stayed at 5.1% in the three months to November, the highest since early 2021, official data show.
  • HMRC estimates indicate payrolled employees fell by 43,000 in December, with losses focused on retail and hospitality.
  • Regular pay growth eased to 4.5%, with private-sector wages slowing to 3.6% and public-sector pay up 7.9%.
  • Vacancies rose by 10,000 to 734,000, but the ONS said openings have been broadly flat in recent months.
  • With CPI rising to 3.4% in December and pay still elevated, analysts say a February rate cut is unlikely and now point to April.