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UK Jobs Market Cools as Pay Growth Slips to 4.8% and Payrolls Decline

The figures sharpen pressure on the chancellor before the 26 November budget.

Overview

  • Regular pay growth slowed to 4.8% in the three months to July, from 5% previously, according to the ONS.
  • The jobless rate held at 4.7% as vacancies fell by 10,000 to 728,000 in June–August, extending a long slide in openings.
  • HMRC data show payrolled employees dropped by 8,000 in August and by 127,000 over the year, with early estimates subject to revision.
  • Average earnings including bonuses rose 4.8%, pointing to a sizeable increase in the state pension under the triple lock.
  • With wage growth still elevated even as hiring cools, markets expect the Bank of England to keep rates at 4% this week.