Overview
- Unemployment reached 4.8% in the three months to August, the highest since 2021, with the increase mainly among younger workers as employment for over‑65s hit a record high.
- Estimated vacancies fell by 9,000 to 717,000 in July to September, marking a 39th consecutive period of quarterly decline from a peak of about 1.3 million.
- Private‑sector pay growth cooled to about 4.4%, regular earnings eased to roughly 4.7%, and total pay including bonuses was near 5%, signaling slower but still elevated wage pressures.
- HMRC payrolls were revised to show a 10,000 rise in August, while an early ONS estimate indicated a roughly 10,000 fall in September, leaving payrolled employment below its level a year earlier.
- The mixed snapshot increases fiscal pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the 26 November Budget and complicates the Bank of England’s rate outlook as officials gauge signs of stabilisation against emerging slack.