Overview
- The ONS reported unemployment at 5.0% in the three months to September, the highest since early 2021 and above the 4.9% consensus.
- HMRC data showed payrolled employment fell by 32,000 in October, leaving roughly 180,000 fewer payrolled workers than a year earlier.
- Average regular pay growth slowed to 4.6% in the quarter, with public-sector pay running at about 6.6% against roughly 4.2% in the private sector.
- Job vacancies were broadly unchanged at around 723,000, as economists said hiring is being delayed by uncertainty over the 26 November Budget and potential tax rises.
- Analysts said the weaker jobs and pay data increase the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in December, with markets marking down sterling and borrowing costs.