Overview
- The ONS reported unemployment at 5.0% in the three months to September, a post‑pandemic high and above forecasts of 4.9%.
- HMRC data showed a further 32,000 drop in payrolled employment in October, with roughly 180,000 fewer payrolled jobs than a year earlier.
- Average regular pay growth eased to 4.6% on the three‑month measure, with public sector pay running stronger than the private sector.
- Vacancies were broadly unchanged at about 723,000, reinforcing evidence of a softer jobs market with persistent mismatches.
- Analysts linked weaker hiring to pre‑Budget tax uncertainty ahead of 26 November, and said the data increase the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in December.