Overview
- Official ONS data show CPI eased to 3.6% in October from 3.8%, largely reflecting smaller increases in gas and electricity bills after Ofgem cap changes.
- Food inflation rebounded to 4.9%, partly offsetting the energy-driven slowdown and underscoring pressure on household budgets.
- A Reuters poll found nearly 80% of economists expect a 25bp cut on Dec. 18, and markets have largely priced in a move, with investor odds rising after the data.
- The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 4% in a 5–4 vote earlier this month, with Governor Andrew Bailey casting the deciding vote to hold pending further evidence.
- Economists say the Autumn Budget on Nov. 26 is the final swing factor, as a softer labor market and weaker growth already strengthen the case for easing.