Overview

• Economists expect the ONS to report headline CPI at roughly 4% for the 12 months to September, with forecasts clustered between 3.9% and 4.1% ahead of Wednesday’s release.
• Stronger clothing prices, higher petrol and airfares, and increased private school fees linked to the VAT change are cited as the main drivers of the monthly jump.
• A 4% reading would likely keep the Bank of England cautious about cutting borrowing costs in the near term, with the base rate currently at 4%.
• Many analysts view September as a short‑term peak, pointing to the 1 October Ofgem price-cap reduction and recent fuel price declines as reasons inflation should ease afterward.
• September’s CPI guides uprating for various benefits and feeds into the state pension triple lock, though the 4.8% earnings growth figure is set to determine next year’s pension increase unless inflation tops it.