Overview
- Economists widely expect October CPI to dip from September’s 3.8%, with Barclays and Pantheon at 3.5%, Deutsche Bank at about 3.7% and the Bank of England projecting 3.6%.
- The Bank of England kept its policy rate at 4% earlier this month and said inflation has peaked, keeping focus on data that could influence rate-cut timing.
- Softer food inflation and Ofgem’s smaller year-on-year energy price cap increase in October (+2% versus +9.6% a year earlier) are seen as the main forces pulling headline CPI lower.
- Tuition fee changes in England and Wales and volatile items such as airfares and cultural services could add temporary upward pressure, analysts warn.
- Forecasters say Reeves’s autumn Budget on 26 November could materially affect the inflation outlook into 2026, with market bets on a possible December rate cut sensitive to both the data and fiscal choices.