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UK Inflation Rises to 2.3%, Delaying Expected Interest Rate Cuts

Higher energy bills and budget measures contribute to a surprising inflation increase, complicating the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions.

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Canadians living in provinces where the federal carbon tax is collected are expected to receive their first Climate Action Incentive rebate today. A man pumps gas in Montreal, Friday, March 4, 2022. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Graham Hughes

Overview

  • The UK's inflation rate climbed to 2.3% in October, surpassing the Bank of England's target and economists' forecasts.
  • Rising energy costs, due to an increased price cap, were major contributors to the inflation spike, despite declines in other sectors like recreation.
  • Core inflation, excluding volatile items, also rose slightly to 3.3%, adding to concerns about persistent price pressures.
  • The Bank of England is now less likely to cut interest rates in December, with markets estimating a low probability of further rate reductions this year.
  • Recent budget measures from the Labour government, including tax increases, are expected to further elevate inflation in the near term.