Overview
- Official ONS data show CPI rose to 3.4% in December from 3.2%, lifted by higher tobacco duties, pricier airfares over Christmas, and some food categories.
- Core inflation held at 3.2% while services inflation edged up to 4.5%, reinforcing concerns over domestically driven price pressures.
- Unemployment was 5.1% in the three months to November and payroll employment continued to fall, with job losses concentrated in retail and hospitality.
- Average regular earnings growth slowed to 4.5%, with private-sector pay cooling to about 3.6% as public-sector pay remained elevated near 7.9%.
- Economists say the latest figures make a February cut unlikely, though they still project gradual easing later in 2026 if wage growth and labour-market softness persist.