Overview

• The Office for National Statistics is due to publish the September CPI on Wednesday, 22 October, with consensus forecasts clustering around 4% after 3.8% in August.
• Economists highlight stronger clothing prices, higher petrol costs and airfares, and increases in some private education fees as the main drivers of the rise.
• Core inflation is expected to edge up, with one Bloomberg poll pointing to 3.7%, reinforcing signals from MPC officials for caution on lowering borrowing costs.
• The Bank of England’s base rate stands at 4%, and analysts such as RSM UK say a November cut looks unlikely, focusing attention on subsequent meetings.
• September’s CPI sets the benchmark for welfare uprating and feeds into pension formulas, intensifying pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves before the 26 November Autumn Budget, though several forecasters still see September as this year’s peak given October energy and fuel declines.