Overview

• Economists widely expect headline CPI to rise to about 3.7% for July, with some forecasts at 3.8%, up from 3.6% in June.
• Pantheon Macroeconomics projects a roughly 17.1% month‑on‑month jump in airfares tied to school holiday demand.
• Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja says accommodation prices may have climbed as much as 9% month on month, partly linked to Oasis tour dates.
• Investec forecasts July RPI at 4.5%, which would imply regulated rail fares could increase by about 5.5%, a prospect criticized by Railfuture.
• Food inflation has accelerated for a third consecutive month, and the Bank of England sees overall inflation peaking near 4% in September before easing.