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UK Inflation Edges Up to 3.4% in December, First Rise Since July

ONS pointed to tobacco duty increases and holiday air fares as the main drivers, with the reading slightly under economists’ expectations.

Overview

  • Official figures show CPI rose to 3.4% in December from 3.2% in November, while CPIH also increased for the first time since July 2025.
  • ONS said the uptick was led by higher tobacco prices following autumn Budget duty hikes, pricier air travel over the holidays, and costlier bread and cereals.
  • The inflation rate came in just below the 3.5% consensus forecast, indicating a modest upside surprise rather than a sharp reacceleration.
  • Chancellor Rachel Reeves said cutting living costs is her top priority and cited measures including £150 off energy bills, a rail fare freeze, a continued prescription charge freeze, and higher minimum and living wages.
  • Separate data reported a 43,000 fall in payrolls in December and a cumulative loss of 216,820 jobs since Labour’s July 2024 election victory, underscoring recent labour market softness.