Overview
- Official ONS data show the CPI rate slipped from 3.8% in September to 3.6% in October, the lowest since June.
- ONS cited smaller year‑on‑year increases in gas and electricity after Ofgem’s October price‑cap reset as the main driver, with hotel prices also weakening.
- Food inflation picked up to about 4.9%, offsetting some of the energy relief and keeping overall inflation well above the Bank’s 2% target.
- Underlying pressures eased slightly as core CPI edged down to 3.4% and services inflation cooled to 4.5%.
- Economists and markets increased the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in December, though the Chancellor’s Budget on 26 November could shift the outlook.