Overview
- Consumer prices were unchanged for a third month and below widespread forecasts of a rise to about 4%, marking the last inflation print before the Bank of England’s 6 November meeting.
- The ONS said petrol and airfares were the largest upward contributors, offset by lower prices for recreational and cultural goods and the first fall in food and non‑alcoholic drinks since May last year.
- Core CPI eased to 3.5% and services inflation held at 4.7%, reinforcing concerns about sticky underlying pressures even as the headline rate stayed steady.
- September’s CPI will be used for policy upratings, with the state pension set by the 4.8% earnings figure under the triple lock and the inflation rate guiding regulated rail fares and some benefits ahead of the 26 November Budget.
- International forecasters expect the UK to have higher inflation than its G7 peers, while Canada’s CPI quickened to 2.4%, prompting markets to trim the odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on 29 October to roughly three‑quarters.