UK House Prices Expected to Remain Flat or Decline in 2024

Higher borrowing costs and mortgage rates have kept housing affordability stretched despite lower house prices, according to Nationwide's latest house price index.

• UK house prices fell by 1.8% in 2023 and are expected to remain flat or decline by up to 2% in 2024, according to Nationwide's house price index.
• Higher borrowing costs have pushed down the number of sales, with transactions across the UK down 10% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
• Only Northern Ireland and Scotland saw an increase in the average sale price of homes in 2023.
• Despite lower house prices, higher mortgage rates have kept housing affordability stretched, with a typical first-time buyer's monthly mortgage payment equivalent to 38% of take-home pay.
• Consumer confidence remains weak, but some mortgage rates have started to fall, with the Bank of England expected to start reducing its Bank Rate.

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