Overview

• UK house prices fell by 1.8% in 2023 and are expected to remain flat or decline by up to 2% in 2024, according to Nationwide's house price index.
• Higher borrowing costs have pushed down the number of sales, with transactions across the UK down 10% compared to pre-pandemic levels.
• Only Northern Ireland and Scotland saw an increase in the average sale price of homes in 2023.
• Despite lower house prices, higher mortgage rates have kept housing affordability stretched, with a typical first-time buyer's monthly mortgage payment equivalent to 38% of take-home pay.
• Consumer confidence remains weak, but some mortgage rates have started to fall, with the Bank of England expected to start reducing its Bank Rate.