Overview
- The Met Office forecasts peak temperatures will drop to the mid–high 20s on Saturday and Sunday, July 18–19, ending the immediate phase of the third 2026 heatwave.
- GFS model runs now show a developing signal for a rapid rebound to mid‑30s highs, with maps indicating possible 34–36C on the weekend of July 25–26 in parts of England.
- Model charts identify nine English counties at greatest risk of 35C or higher later in July, including Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, Norfolk, Suffolk, Herefordshire, Worcestershire and Gloucestershire.
- The Met Office stresses the late‑July picture is uncertain and its July 19–28 outlook warns that waning high pressure would raise the chance of showers or thunderstorms even as temperatures stay above average.
- Residents should treat the weekend respite as temporary, follow Met Office updates for confirmed warnings and expect regional differences in heat, thunderstorm risk and impacts on health and fire danger.