Overview

• Official data show GDP was unchanged in July, matching forecasts after a 0.4% rise in June.
• The ONS reported services and construction edging higher as production fell, leaving three-month changes at services +0.4%, production -1.3% and construction +0.6%.
• Growth earlier in 2025 remained firmer by recent standards, with Q1 up 0.7% and Q2 up 0.3% partly linked to higher public spending and export front‑loading ahead of tariffs.
• The Bank of England cut rates 25 basis points to 4% in August on a 5–4 vote, and analysts largely expect a hold on Sept. 18 with some still penciling in a November move.
• Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the economy “feels stuck,” as firms pause hiring and investment while awaiting employment law details and the Nov. 26 Autumn Budget.