Overview
- Forecasters expect May gross domestic product to show no growth or a small fall with the Office for National Statistics due to publish the official figures on Thursday.
- Monthly data showed a 0.1% fall in April after gains earlier in the year, and that drop was driven mainly by weaker services output including information, professional and financial services and real estate.
- Rising fuel and energy prices linked to the Iran war pushed costs onto households and firms in April and May even though wholesale energy prices have eased in recent weeks.
- The broader picture is uneven because higher oil prices helped energy suppliers and construction and manufacturing saw pockets of growth while retailers reported short, weather‑driven boosts and possible World Cup gains for pubs and bars.
- Slower growth and sustained cost pressures are increasing the trade‑off facing the Bank of England over inflation and output and have drawn public comment from Chancellor Rachel Reeves about the conflict’s domestic impact.