Overview

• Grocery price inflation rose to 5.2% in the four weeks to July 13, marking an 18-month high
• The surge could add roughly £275 to the average £5,283 household grocery spend
• Own-label products outperformed branded lines with 5.6% sales growth as shoppers pared back to simpler meals
• Lidl achieved a record 8.3% grocery market share, Tesco held 28.3% and Ocado grew fastest with an 11.7% sales increase
• Forecasts from the Institute of Grocery Distribution project a summer peak near 5.1% before food inflation eases in 2026