Overview
- Official forecasts from the Met Office and BBC Weather say a shift to drier, more settled conditions is likely in mid‑June and could produce above‑average temperatures starting around June 13–15.
- Models and public updates show a range of onsets and durations with some guidance suggesting a shorter warm spell and other runs projecting a prolonged run of warm, drier weather into late June.
- Regional contrasts are expected with much of England, Wales and Northern Ireland likeliest to see the warmest and driest conditions and north‑west Scotland remaining wetter and cooler.
- Forecasters emphasise real uncertainty in the outlook, noting roughly a 25% chance that a different high‑pressure alignment could bring cooler flows instead of the projected warm spell.
- A private forecaster has raised a low‑confidence extreme scenario of temperatures reaching 40°C this summer, but that outcome is not reflected in official guidance and remains speculative.