Overview
- Forecasters, which issued updates on Monday, said the Met Office outlook for July 22–31 points to broadly above‑average temperatures across the UK with the south most at risk.
- Different models give a wide range of peaks: NetWeather maps show highs of about 31°C in parts of southern England on July 24 while WX Charts using the GFS model projects up to about 38°C by July 29.
- The BBC 14‑day forecast and local forecasts indicate Greater London is likely to meet its three‑day heatwave threshold of 28°C from around July 28–29, which would trigger local heatwave classification.
- Past episodes this summer have caused public‑health warnings and transport disruption, and health services and infrastructure operators say they are monitoring evolving guidance as forecasts update.
- The Met Office places the risk of recurring hot spells in the context of a long‑term warming trend of roughly 0.25°C per decade since the 1980s, and it warns model uncertainty means peak intensity and timing could change as the event approaches.