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UK Forecast Turns From Heat to Late‑August Rain Risk as Hurricane Erin Influences Atlantic Pattern

Met Office guidance points to Erin‑linked Atlantic fronts that could undercut high pressure.

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Overview

  • The latest Met Office updates say the recent heatwave has ended for most places, with early‑week weather largely dry and cooler, reaching roughly 23–27C and with a small chance of thundery showers in the southwest.
  • For 22–31 August, forecasters expect high pressure to weaken as Atlantic systems move in, bringing a credible risk of wetter, windier and more changeable conditions, especially across the north and west.
  • Privately produced WXCharts maps depict a broad rain band arriving around 27–28 August with locally heavy totals, though the Met Office cautions that specific dates and amounts remain uncertain this far out.
  • Hurricane Erin has strengthened into a major category‑4 storm and is forecast to track north near the US East Coast, with its energy potentially feeding North Atlantic low pressure that later steers UK weather.
  • Officials report nationally significant water shortfalls in England with drought declared in five areas, providing important context for any late‑month rainfall after a run of summer heatwaves.