Overview

• UK food price inflation rose to 4.0% in July, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase driven largely by higher meat and tea costs.
• Overall shop price inflation climbed 0.7%, the largest year-on-year rise since April 2024, intensifying pressure on household budgets.
• Projections from the Autonomy Institute indicate climate-induced supply shocks could lift UK grocery prices by 25–34% by mid-century under different emissions scenarios.
• Researchers warn that without targeted interventions almost one million low-income households could be pushed into poverty by 2050.
• Policy proposals under discussion include price controls, strategic buffer stocks of staples and publicly funded diners to protect vulnerable families and stabilize prices.