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UK Food Inflation Forecast Raised to 5.7% by Year-End, FDF Warns

Manufacturers say UK-specific taxes with higher labour costs are pressures they can no longer absorb.

Overview

  • The Food and Drink Federation lifted its year-end projection for food and drink inflation to 5.7%, up from prior forecasts around 4.8–4.9%.
  • FDF chief executive Karen Betts said companies are now passing some production costs on to shoppers after years of absorbing increases.
  • Industry analysis shows food and non-alcoholic drink prices rose about 37% since January 2020, outpacing a 28% rise in overall prices.
  • Commodity and input pressures cited include sharp gains in sugar (+56%), whole milk (+46%) and cheese (+31%) since 2020.
  • The group links persistent UK price pressures to domestic policies, highlighting an employer national insurance burden of roughly £410 million and a packaging tax estimated at £1.1 billion in its first year, and it is pressing for relief ahead of the 26 November Budget.