Overview
- Early August 2026 data show half of England and all of Wales remain officially in drought with soil moisture and reservoirs at critically low levels.
- The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board’s provisional yields put wheat at about 6.8 tonnes per hectare and, if averages hold, the cereals and oilseeds crop could total roughly 19.5 million tonnes.
- An Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit analysis estimates the hot, dry spring and summer cut around 2.5 million tonnes from earlier forecasts and may cost farmers up to £390 million in lost revenue.
- Farm groups and analysts warn the shortfall risks supply pressure, higher prices and greater imports and are pressing ministers to speed up water-storage projects and ease planning barriers for farm reservoirs.
- Experts say repeated extreme seasons deepen systemic risk to UK farming, while some growers explore warmer-climate crops as an adaptation option that carries uncertain long-term prospects.