Overview
- Short-range model runs point to a sharp fall in temperatures beginning around November 11 with a concentrated three-day window of much-below-average readings across parts of the UK.
- The GFS-based maps and reports identify about 24 counties in Scotland, northern England and Wales that could see daytime or evening temperatures dip below freezing during the event.
- Forecasters say parts of northern Scotland may fall to about −3°C while London may struggle to reach about 4°C and East Anglia could be nearer 6°C on the coldest days.
- The Met Office has confirmed an increased chance of colder conditions and possible wintry showers and has stressed substantial uncertainty over the exact timing and geographic reach of the outbreak.
- Early model detail can change in later runs, so people should expect frost, ice and some travel disruption if the cold spell verifies and follow Met Office updates for definitive forecasts.