Overview
- The Resolution Foundation warns that sustained pressure from higher interest costs, energy bills and minimum wage increases could force low‑productivity firms to fail in 2026, risking further job losses.
- UK unemployment stands at 5.1% on the latest ONS reading, the highest outside the pandemic in a decade and a baseline for concerns about a further rise.
- A British Chambers of Commerce survey of more than 4,600 companies shows business confidence at a three‑year low, with tax the top concern, weak turnover expectations and falling investment.
- Company insolvencies rose 17% year on year to 2,029 in October 2025, with the share of jobs lost through firm closures at its highest since 2011, underscoring mounting financial stress.
- In The Times’s annual survey, 67% of economists expect unemployment to end 2026 between 5% and 5.5%, more than eight in ten anticipate at least two Bank of England rate cuts, and most see GDP growth near 1–2% led by public spending.