Overview

• Forecasters confirm the fourth heatwave has ended, with a cooler, largely dry week ahead and local highs near 27C early on before easing to the low‑20s.
• The Met Office long‑range outlook keeps high pressure in charge at first, then notes a deep North Atlantic low tied to Erin could bring more changeable conditions late in August.
• Confidence in precise timing and intensity remains low, with the agency cautioning that detailed date‑specific forecasts beyond about a week are unreliable.
• Independent WXCharts maps depict a broad west‑to‑east rain band around 27–28 August and very high local totals over Welsh high ground, though this is one possible scenario.
• England remains under nationally significant water shortfalls after a dry spring and multiple heatwaves, even as US hurricane monitors track Erin’s large size and evolving path offshore.