Overview

• Ofgem forecasts a 2–3% increase to the Energy Price Cap from its current £1,720 level for the October to December quarter.
• Analysts attribute the projected rise to recent spikes in wholesale prices amid the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
• Further quarterly reviews could add about 1% in January 2026 and approximately 3% by April under existing projections.
• The cap, which governs costs for 65% of households on standard variable tariffs, is recalculated every three months using a published Ofgem algorithm based on typical energy use.
• The government will expand the £150 Warm Home Discount to 2.7 million additional low-income households for winter 2025/26.