Overview
- Cornwall Insight’s final forecast puts the January–March 2026 cap at £1,733 for a typical dual‑fuel household, a £22 (1%) drop from £1,755.
- The cap is projected to be about £75 higher from April 2026, driven largely by increased electricity transmission and gas distribution charges, with a new nuclear RAB levy adding roughly £10 a year.
- Ofgem is due to publish the official January cap on 21 November.
- The consultancy expects wholesale energy to make up less than 40% of the cap for the rest of the decade as non‑wholesale costs become the main upward pressure on bills.
- Media reports suggest the government may consider cutting the 5% VAT on energy, which Cornwall Insight estimates could reduce bills by about £80 a year, though this is not included in the forecast.