Overview
- Cornwall Insight’s final projection points to Ofgem’s cap dropping 1% to £1,733 for a typical dual‑fuel household from January 2026, a £22 reduction.
- The forecaster expects the cap to rise by about £75 from April, driven largely by higher electricity transmission and gas distribution charges and policy‑related levies.
- Analysts say wholesale energy will account for under 40% of the cap for the rest of the decade, signaling a lasting shift in what drives household bills.
- Ofgem is scheduled to confirm the January–March cap on 21 November, and any potential Budget moves such as VAT changes are not included in the forecast.
- Households may cut costs by switching to fixed tariffs under the cap—some up to 18% cheaper, worth roughly £315 a year—and by claiming support like the Warm Home Discount and Cold Weather Payment.