Overview

• Met Office predicts no official heatwave through the end of July as temperatures remain below regional thresholds.
• WXCharts’ GFS-based models forecast a three-day heatwave from August 5 to 7 with peaks of 32°C to 33°C across southeastern England, including Maidstone and Canterbury.
• Long-range Met Office guidance indicates high pressure building from August 6 to 20, bringing dry, settled weather and raising the likelihood of additional hot spells.
• Official criteria define a UK heatwave as three consecutive days above region-specific thresholds—25°C for most areas and up to 28°C in London—which early August forecasts may locally satisfy.
• Senior meteorologist Jim Dale estimates a roughly one-in-seven chance of the UK reaching 40°C this summer, a projection supported by recent GFS and ECM model runs suggesting potential for extreme heat later in August.