Overview

• The UK hospitality and retail sectors are preparing for significant cost increases from April, driven by a rise in employer National Insurance contributions and a 6.7% increase in the minimum wage.
• Private sector employment has already fallen sharply, with a combined loss of over 94,000 jobs in hospitality, retail, and related industries over the past year, according to ONS data.
• The Bank of England forecasts inflation to rise to 3.7% later this year, partly due to higher labor costs, complicating efforts to reduce interest rates further.
• Businesses across sectors are cutting jobs, scaling back investments, and raising prices to cope with the anticipated financial burden, with some warning of closures and relocations abroad.
• Public services, charities, and local councils are also facing increased costs, leading to higher taxes, service cuts, and financial strain across the UK.