Overview

• GFS-based forecasts from WX Charts project highs of up to 37 °C in central and southern England on August 16.
• If temperatures remain elevated through August 17 and 18, Met Office criteria for a three-day heatwave could be met in up to 32 counties.
• The Met Office long-range outlook highlights a dominant high-pressure regime bringing above-average and humid conditions, especially in the south.
• Northern and western regions face a greater chance of rain or showers and breezier conditions, potentially avoiding the peak heat.
• Forecast confidence is limited by conflicting model outputs and uncertainty over how ex-Tropical Storm Dexter’s remnants will interact with incoming high pressure.