Overview
- Official data show the government borrowed £20.2bn in September, taking six‑month borrowing to £99.8bn, with debt at 95.3% of GDP and around £9.7bn paid in interest last month.
- The deficit so far this year is about £7.2bn worse than the OBR’s March forecast, reinforcing estimates of a fiscal shortfall ranging from roughly £20bn to as much as £50bn.
- Rachel Reeves is weighing further revenue measures despite past assurances, with analysts suggesting she may have to consider one of the big three taxes or additional asset‑focused levies to meet her fiscal rules.
- The OBR’s final forecasts due on 21 November are expected to downgrade productivity and growth, while the Treasury promotes pro‑growth steps such as planning reforms and a stated intention to cut around £6bn of business red tape.
- Reeves has argued Brexit and earlier austerity have inflicted a larger‑than‑expected hit to productivity, as think‑tanks warn of weakened tax competitiveness and political resistance limits deep immediate spending cuts.