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UK Birthrate Hits Record Low as Global Fertility Decline Tests Policy Fixes

Fresh ONS data putting fertility at 1.41 has sharpened UK debate over ageing, growth, migration.

Overview

  • Official figures show England and Wales fell to 1.41 children per woman in 2024, a new low, with average parent ages rising to 31 for mothers and 33.9 for fathers.
  • Economists say fewer births ease short‑term pressure on schools and budgets but worsen long‑term strains as the pensioner‑to‑worker ratio is projected to climb from 280 per 1,000 in 2020 to 393 by 2070.
  • The Labour government said it is suspending a scheme that allowed registered refugees to bring family members, underscoring a volatile immigration debate as parties set out competing solutions.
  • Reform UK proposes pro‑natal measures such as scrapping the two‑child benefit cap and expanding tax breaks for married couples, reflecting pressure to boost the domestic birthrate.
  • New Pew‑linked analyses place the UK slump in a broader slide, with Europe and North America near 1.4–1.6 and China around 1.0, while researchers caution that cash incentives have had limited impact and highlight cultural factors, including men’s caregiving roles.