Overview

• The UK construction PMI rose to 46.2 in September from 45.5, marking a ninth straight month below 50 despite the slowest decline in three months.
• S&P Global reported broad falls across UK residential, commercial and civil engineering work, with employment down for nine consecutive months, the longest run since the pandemic.
• Business expectations at UK builders were among the weakest since late 2022, with many firms citing client caution ahead of the Autumn Budget as a brake on major projects.
• Germany’s construction PMI registered 46.2, which HCOB still describes as recessionary, as housing weakness deepened and commercial activity remained subdued while civil engineering growth lost momentum.
• HCOB flagged an almost unabated drop in German new orders, rising input and subcontractor costs, and financing pressure from still-elevated long-term yields despite lower short‑term rates after ECB cuts.