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UK 30-Year Gilt Yields Near 27-Year High, Tightening Reeves’s Budget Choices

Higher long‑term rates threaten the day‑to‑day balance rule, increasing the likelihood of tax rises at the autumn budget.

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Rachel Reeves is losing room to manoeuvre in her autumn budget

Overview

  • The 30‑year yield rose 8–9 basis points on Tuesday to about 5.62–5.63%, close to April’s peak and the highest levels since 1998.
  • Analysts warn the chancellor may need up to £30bn in tax increases to comply with fiscal rules after her headroom was largely wiped out in recent months.
  • The annual debt‑interest bill is reported to be above £100bn, adding to pressure on spending plans.
  • Long‑dated yields have climbed even after three Bank of England rate cuts this year, and policymaker Catherine Mann cited “inflation persistence” in arguing for holding rates.
  • The Treasury plans roughly £300bn of gilt sales this year, with a £5bn Debt Management Office auction scheduled on Wednesday.