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7h ago

UC Davis Warns Bay Area Infrastructure Faces Exceptional Flood Risk This Winter

Scientists say a rare overlap of a very strong El Niño, king tides and an oceanic Kelvin Wave could raise baseline sea levels enough to trigger repeated closures and lasting damage to airports, highways and levees.

Much of San Francisco International Airport and adjacent Highway 101 is projected to flood from a 3-feet-above-normal high tide. Red lines show where shorelines could be overtopped by water. Credit: San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission
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A big rig hauling lumber gets trapped in floodwater on Highway 37, as seen in February 2019. The highway is at high risk of flooding again this winter, amid the influence of El Niño.
 Areas in light blue in the above map are at risk of flooding during a high tide 3 feet above normal, including westbound Interstate 80 at the Bay Bridge toll plaza, which experts predict is likely this winter. A major storm at the same time could flood areas in dark blue. 

Overview

  • The UC Davis Road Ecology Center released a report Thursday that maps site-specific flood scenarios for Northern and Central California and flags the Bay Area as especially vulnerable this winter.
  • The analysis identifies critical assets at high risk including runways and roadways at San Francisco International Airport, westbound Bay Bridge approaches, Highway 37 along San Pablo Bay and levees on the Petaluma River.
  • Researchers say the threat comes from a convergence of factors: a very strong El Niño driving wetter storms, seasonal king tides that raise high-water marks, an elevated baseline sea level from a Kelvin Wave, and long-term sea-level rise.
  • Exceptionally high tides are expected during narrow windows — the week of Christmas and again in late January with a possible earlier pulse around Thanksgiving — and a storm that lines up with those tides could cause prolonged inundation and simultaneous closures.
  • State and local agencies have prepositioned sandbags and mobilized National Guard readiness while some facilities, including SFO, are preparing now, but experts warn meaningful flood resilience will take years of major investment and could still leave the region exposed to repeated, costly damage.