Overview
- The S&P 500 last closed at 6,728.80, placing UBS’s target about 11% above current levels.
- UBS projects S&P 500 earnings to grow about 14.4% through 2026, with growth expected to pick up from the second quarter of 2026.
- AI-linked leaders including Nvidia, Microsoft and Alphabet are identified as key drivers as record technology capex supports profits.
- UBS warns of a four-to-five month soft patch as tariffs filter into prices and exports, while saying bubble and valuation concerns likely have a limited effect.
- Recent data underpin the outlook, with third-quarter S&P 500 profits up roughly 15% and analyst upgrades outpacing downgrades since mid-October.