Overview
- UBS projects incumbents such as Volkswagen and Toyota will see their combined share in key markets fall from about 81% to 58% by 2030, with Tesla rising from roughly 2% to 8%.
- Overseas markets account for around 20% of Chinese automakers’ volumes today, and in some cases contribute up to half of profits.
- Manufacturers are localizing production with plants and assembly in Thailand, Brazil and Hungary to access markets and blunt trade barriers.
- UBS notes European EV adoption has slowed and tariffs and protectionist measures pose obstacles, though analysts say Chinese firms are catching up after a slower 2024.
- Industry observers expect consolidation to coalesce around roughly 10 to 15 OEM and tech-led platforms as the sector matures.