Overview

• The government’s plan centers on a 250 billion‑peso SPV funded by Banobras and private lenders with Hacienda guarantees, following July’s $12 billion pre‑capitalized notes that helped ease pressures and preceded a Fitch upgrade to BB.
• UBS warns the strategy will not remove Pemex as a near‑term fiscal burden and says outcomes hinge on attracting private capital, cutting costs, and prioritizing profitable projects.
• The bank questions whether the 250 billion pesos will cover required capex and notes no defined solution for supplier arrears of about 430 billion pesos.
• Moody’s reiterates the need for very large investments as Pemex carries roughly $98.8 billion in financial debt, with about $5.1 billion due in 2025 and $18.7 billion in 2026.
• UBS cautions that policies reinforcing state dominance could invite T‑MEC challenges from the United States and Canada, echoing concerns documented by the USTR.