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UBS Index Says Bubble Risk Has Receded in Frankfurt and Munich After 20% Real Price Drop

UBS attributes the downturn primarily to higher borrowing costs.

Overview

  • Frankfurt and Munich now sit in the middle of UBS’s 21-city rankings at positions 11 and 13.
  • Miami, Tokyo and Zurich are identified as carrying the highest current bubble risk.
  • UBS sees a potential mid-term recovery in prices and further rent increases if interest rates fall and supply remains constrained.
  • Frankfurt’s expanding finance sector is expected to keep rental demand strong, while Munich looks stable with limited near-term price upside.
  • The index benchmarks prices and rents against incomes and economic output and factors in household indebtedness and construction activity.