Overview

• UBS’s August 26 assessment concludes Pemex remains the largest short‑term fiscal risk to Mexico despite the new strategy.
• The government’s August 5 plan targets operational and financial self‑sufficiency by 2027 and creates a 250 billion‑peso investment vehicle split between Banobras and private financing.
• UBS warns the funding pool may be insufficient for Pemex’s capital needs and says success depends on attracting private partners, cutting costs, and prioritizing profitable projects.
• The report flags a lack of a defined approach to settle about 430 billion pesos in supplier debt reported at end‑June.
• UBS cites continued production declines and a shift into unfamiliar energy businesses as execution risks, adding that recent policy swings could deter investors and invite potential USMCA challenges.