Overview

• Hamas’s chain of command is largely broken and communications are sporadic, with sources describing the group as in disarray and focused on survival.
• Hamas has shifted to decentralized guerrilla tactics using small cells and remaining tunnels, with occasional rocket launches and raids still occurring.
• Estimates of fighter losses diverge widely, while US intelligence has assessed 10,000–15,000 mostly inexperienced new recruits that may inflate strength on paper.
• Hostages remain Hamas’s primary bargaining chip, shaping negotiations and constraining Israeli options despite the group’s degraded capabilities.
• Gaza’s civil governance has eroded with reports of security vacuums and anti-Hamas groups, as regional actors engage diplomacy and say Hamas has no role in postwar Gaza.