Overview
- The Cook Political Report updated ratings on Oct. 9 and moved 18 House districts toward Democrats, turning several formerly safe Republican seats into competitive contests.
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll published Oct. 19 found President Trump’s approval at 31% and showed 47% of registered voters preferring Democratic congressional candidates versus 35% for Republicans.
- The 2026 campaign is the costliest on record, with AdImpact reporting more than $15 billion raised and over $3.8 billion spent on political ads through Oct. 12, concentrating resources in key Senate and House battlegrounds.
- Officials warn that large volumes of mail ballots could delay results because each returned ballot often requires signature and envelope checks; California has set aside about $40 million to speed early processing and voter education so ballots can be verified before Election Day.
- Control of the Senate remains competitive—Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats need a net gain of four to reach 51—and state election officials and congressional Democrats are preparing legal measures in case of efforts by the White House to influence the post‑election process while changes in Congress could shift oversight of trade, security and migration with Mexico.