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Two Weather Systems Keep India’s Monsoon Active and Raise Flood Risks

The IMD warns a Bay of Bengal low expected Wednesday and a northwest Madhya Pradesh low can drive fresh heavy rain, coastal squalls and localized flash floods through mid‑August.

Overview

  • A low over northwest Madhya Pradesh has driven isolated extremely heavy rain in East Rajasthan, with Sunel recording about 300 mm in the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.
  • An upper‑air circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal is forecast to spawn a low on Wednesday, August 12, which the IMD says could bring heavy to very heavy showers to Odisha and large parts of Bengal.
  • The India Meteorological Department projects widespread rainfall across central, eastern and north‑eastern India through August 17 and has flagged a low flash‑flood risk for districts in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
  • Coastal squall warnings and a fishermen advisory for the West BengalOdisha coast and north Bay run from August 11–15, and the IMD has issued yellow and orange alerts for Mumbai, Thane and neighbouring districts.
  • Saturated catchments and high urban runoff are already causing waterlogging and transport disruption in cities and raise the chance of landslides and flash floods, a pattern the IMD says is being sustained by an active monsoon trough and related atmospheric disturbances.